UBS has projected that Waymo will own 60 percent of autonomous ride-hailing market share by 2030.
According to its report published last month, 12 percent of new car sales sold before 2030 will service autonomous/self-driving car fleets, comprising roughly 26 million ride-hailing vehicles, reducing private car sales by five percent. Globally, Waymo–part of parent company Alphabet–revenues can hit as high as $114 billion by 2030, with the lion’s share of revenue coming from rides, followed by mapping and sensor technology sales for fully self-driving cars.
Putting in the Miles
The group attributes Waymo’s lead over other companies like Uber to a five-year head start building on the self-driving car project before major automakers such as Jaguar with its autonomous i-Pace, with more than 10 million test scenario miles driven to date on real-world tracks and simulators in places like Arizona and California, where seeing a self-driving vehicle or Waymo vehicle in autonomous mode has become common.
“Very few players other than Waymo will be able to succeed with having an autonomous vehicle brain in the marketplace,” wrote UBS analyst Patrick Hummel. “Sooner or later carmakers that are unable to compete will have to give in and take the Waymo system.”
At the moment, the self-driving technology company is conducting the bulk of its testing on public roads in the Arizona suburbs (mostly around Phoenix, Mesa and Chandler) through its Early Rider program, with smaller operations in San Francisco, California and other cities. Its goal is to launch service by the end of the year.